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@user_qr3bo8pt
Member since March 2026
Democrats will hold the White House in 2028. Structural advantages in the Electoral College are decisive.
The Fed is going to cut rates twice in 2026 and the bond market is pricing it wrong right now.
UK inflation will stay above 3% through Q4 2026. Services sector stickiness is being underestimated.
The polling industry has not fixed its problems since 2016. Any model based on polling deserves heavy skepticism.
There will be a snap election in Germany before the end of 2027. The coalition will not last a full term.
US unemployment will tick above 5% in H2 2026 as the lagged effects of higher rates bite further.
Political prediction markets are now more reliable than any single polling aggregator. The money enforces honesty.
With RFK Jr. in a cabinet role, will US vaccine uptake rates fall measurably by 2027?
Scotland will vote for independence in a second referendum before 2032.
There will be a major Western government cyberattack attributed to a nation-state before the end of 2026.
The Republican party will nominate someone other than Trump for president in 2028.